What's going with Russia?

[joaquinmurieta]

But who has more gold medals this time??

Now I think I get warming up to China is more than just a good 'business' decision...

Max and Birdie, thanks for the trialogue...gotta scoot. (I think I will from here on out label myself as a 'NIMBY Goldwater Liberal Christian'


: )

[RanchHQ]

[akulasquirrel]

Originally Posted by Wilbur

Oh, that's easy. If you poke repeatedly at a bear it will eventually react. Especially when it is suddenly much more healthy and wealthy and has you worn out because its clients have sucked you into rope-a-dope.

Putin's been playing chess in the region while we've been playing checkers.

I wouldn't say that Putin has necessarily been playing Chess... no, I think it's more like tag-team wrestling and we've only got one guy on the team. Putin's been watching us very closely. He knows that attacking Georgia is far better than going after Poland or any of the NATO allies. Poland knows how to fight the Russian/Soviet way. They KNOW what and how Russia will do things if they invade Poland. Georgia doesn't have a very large military. They'd be chewed up and spit out pretty quickly if Russia really wants to.

Putin also knows that the United States Military is extremely effective at waging war and knows that the US Military, though tired, could shift priorities around and clean his clock. So, he has chosen to wait until now to move and do so against a lesser politically important country. He knows that Obama has basically zero experience. He knows that McCain knows about war and can be very decisive if need be. He knows that if he scares the United States populace into thinking that we're headed into another war, Obama will be elected and then Russia will have bought some time in which it won't be challenged much... time for re-expansion!

Russia also isn't stupid. They won't go nuclear on Poland nor will they invade Poland. I find it interesting that the ABM agreement with Poland and the invasion of Georgia are pretty well timed. I'm sure that Russia's build-up for an invasion of Georgia wasn't unnoticed by anyone. Could it be that Poland saw the build-up and went for an ABM capability that they don't have to prevent an invasion? Shift some forces around and suddenly Georgia gets invaded instead.

Hold on to your butts, people. This ride is quite likely to get very bumpy in the next few months and it could get quite ugly. At least Russia, in it's present size, is nowhere near as strong militarily as it used to be. And remember this: If Russia cuts the oil & gas lines to Europe, we're going to see prices of those resources soar so high that we're going to think that $200/barrel of oil is cheap. Europe would drive that demand up because they'd need the energy, and they'll get it from anywhere they can get it.

[2112]

ABM's don't prevent invasions. Besides, the stated reason for the ABM's was to defend Europe from Iranian ballistic missiles. Yeah right, 10 ABM's in Poland will protect Europe. It's best to hit a ballistic missile in the boost phase. Once it reaches it's apogee and is on it's final trajectory you need to destroy the warhead (or warheads in the case of a MIRV), not the missile in order to guarantee the warhead does not reach the target. An ABM in Poland could certainly hit a Russian ballistic missile in the boost phase launched near the polish border. A Polish based ABM cannot hit an Iranian ballistc missile launched from Iran.

We need to rethink the policy of NATO expansion. It really doesn't buy us anything other than additional foreign entanglements and aggravates Russia.

Anyway, ABM's happen to be a favorite of the military industrial complex and more than likely don't work at this point.

[akulasquirrel]

Originally Posted by 2112

ABM's don't prevent invasions. Besides, the stated reason for the ABM's was to defend Europe from Iranian ballistic missiles. Yeah right, 10 ABM's in Poland will protect Europe. It's best to hit a ballistic missile in the boost phase. Once it reaches it's apogee and is on it's final trajectory you need to destroy the warhead (or warheads in the case of a MIRV), not the missile in order to guarantee the warhead does not reach the target. An ABM in Poland could certainly hit a Russian ballistic missile in the boost phase launched near the polish border. A Polish based ABM cannot hit an Iranian ballistc missile launched from Iran.

We need to rethink the policy of NATO expansion. It really doesn't buy us anything other than additional foreign entanglements and aggravates Russia.

Anyway, ABM's happen to be a favorite of the military industrial complex and more than likely don't work at this point.

Boost phase is always the easiest time to take out ballistic missiles. Unfortunately, it's quite difficult to place ABM sites close enough to be able to do that. At this point, current ABM technology can't guarantee a stop against incoming warheads, but they're getting better at it. Over the past couple years, the US military has done some successful terminal phase testing of ABMs. It's not 100%... but it's better than nothing. ABM systems won't prevent invasion, but it makes a nuclear strike less likely to be successful. This means that the invading force would be forced to rely on conventional means. In this case, Russia and Poland have very similar training, strategy, and tactics. They know each other's strengths and weaknesses and they have basically the same equipment. A conventional fight between Poland and Russia right now would be more like the Iran/Iraq war. A fight against the US would not go well... and everyone knows it. Russia knows that Georgia is not as likely to get international aid... Poland can hold it's own. Guess who Russia invades

On top of all that, events thousands of miles away may influence events here at home. Russia may be looking at their biggest potential adversary and may be attempting to influence our events to get the guy they believe will be more favorable to their own desires.

This stuff is layers upon layers upon layers of national and international politics.

[RanchHQ]

Originally Posted by akulasquirrel

He knows that Obama has basically zero experience. He knows that McCain knows about war and can be very decisive if need be. He knows that if he scares the United States populace into thinking that we're headed into another war, Obama will be elected...

I believe just the converse would happen; when backed up against a wall I think the American Populace would Vote heavely for Senator McCain over a Freshman Senator with no, zero, zip, nada experience.

[dreamliner]

Where's Reagan when you need him, such as circa 1987 Reykjavik summit standoff with Gorbachev? Probably his defining moment, causing the dismantling of the USSR, when he walked. Hint, it ain't Obama at Saddleback when asked by Warren what is evil and what to do about it? Obama paraphrased: "Gosh, don't piss off the bear, after all it's all our fault for provoking evil in the first place, since we are evil". Typical Chamberlin-like liberal cowardice response. KGB Putin is all about restoration of lost USSR pride and export control of petroleum energy to Europe and wherever, through the Caucasus, Georgia, except he doesn't have enough tools in his toolbox to follow through. Sure he's gaming now. This ain't headed to a strategic nuclear showdown such as Missiles of October, circa 1962, probably JFK's only real Presidential greatness. So just throw more Star Wars at him, or whatever it takes, politically or economically to grind him down, rather than retreat. That's all the likes of the Putins understand. Interesting that McCain, when asked the same question by Warren at Saddleback, what is evil? McCain immediately responded "evil is the likes of Osama Bin Laden, and I'm resolved to eliminate that SOB from the face of this earth". Note also earlier, McCain had remarked "I looked into Putin's eyes and saw KGB". That's the guy I want on my Security team, and that's how we stay out of wars.

[joaquinmurieta]

HAAA! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....oh jeez..hahahahahaha! sorry....

[DBCooper]

Welcome to the party dreamliner. Nice to see you post.

[DBCooper]

Originally Posted by 2112

A Polish based ABM cannot hit an Iranian ballistc missile launched from Iran.

We need to rethink the policy of NATO expansion. It really doesn't buy us anything other than additional foreign entanglements and aggravates Russia.

Anyway, ABM's happen to be a favorite of the military industrial complex and more than likely don't work at this point.

You have no idea what youre talking about regarding politics or more directly the Missile Interceptors being placed in Poland.